Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AAVE prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 147.251222 171.923478 201.290567 239.356209 288.199600 3.499336e+02 4.358328e+02
2025-02-16 114.649686 144.396887 183.979756 242.435342 330.233142 4.641247e+02 6.999932e+02
2025-02-23 96.598801 127.491116 171.615198 242.763655 362.500043 5.741976e+02 1.033706e+03
2025-03-02 85.185963 116.494312 163.735533 245.517088 397.161560 7.041506e+02 1.528767e+03
2025-03-09 76.958376 108.336399 157.887188 249.059187 433.516172 8.588281e+02 2.295701e+03
2025-03-16 68.959562 99.138635 148.417969 243.368542 449.101321 9.778976e+02 3.191192e+03
2025-03-23 65.526591 96.604592 149.453488 257.300576 512.679813 1.275361e+03 5.761625e+03
2025-03-30 59.445574 88.871090 140.061155 248.022637 517.533051 1.402475e+03 8.083703e+03
2025-04-06 55.696155 84.627351 136.317735 249.710834 551.773431 1.673547e+03 1.404369e+04
2025-04-13 52.158536 80.339972 131.842144 248.730435 578.647844 1.955111e+03 2.547535e+04
2025-04-20 50.482592 79.148146 133.111587 261.289356 653.255266 2.597888e+03 8.375844e+04
2025-04-27 49.976593 79.995580 138.525329 285.451679 782.914082 3.933156e+03 1.938240e+06
2025-05-04 46.581104 75.361963 132.512918 280.263004 809.532499 4.699775e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 44.224347 72.517940 130.018493 284.423078 880.690246 6.327133e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 41.864503 69.417812 126.508238 284.839989 938.103126 8.319583e+03 NaN
2025-05-25 39.954626 67.011467 124.203631 288.279452 1015.663782 1.166516e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 38.289576 64.931716 122.353317 292.708956 1105.798627 1.725690e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 36.129910 61.656341 117.290534 285.595412 1125.204482 2.163025e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 35.462447 61.395741 119.388839 303.036913 1323.211365 4.703368e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 33.405732 58.052617 113.541894 291.412131 1309.191723 5.712929e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 32.168370 56.357078 111.615915 293.524477 1405.798939 1.054497e+05 NaN
2025-07-06 30.879091 54.452740 108.947276 292.297602 1478.046092 1.991036e+05 NaN
2025-07-13 30.385823 54.229405 110.566413 308.046446 1733.279437 1.530441e+06 NaN